Around two to four tropical cyclones are expected to develop in or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before the year ends, state weather bureau PAGASA said on Thursday.
“By the end of December, mga around two to four pa iyong inaasahan natin na posibleng papasok o made-develop inside the PAR,” PAGASA assistant weather services chief Ana Liza Solis said in the Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon briefing.
(We expect two to four tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside the PAR before the end of December.)
While some areas of the country may be hit by the tropical cyclones, Solis said other places may still experience dry spells and droughts due to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon.
The El Niño phenomenon is characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below-normal rainfall.
Dry spells are seen to start by the end of November 2023 up to April 2024, according to Solis.
Drought means three consecutive months of way below normal rainfall conditions, with over 60% reduction from the average rainfall. It could also be five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall conditions, with a 21% to 60% reduction from the average rainfall.
A dry spell is three consecutive months of 21% to 60% reduction in average rainfall conditions or two consecutive months of over 60% reduction.